The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE) published an unclassified assessment on 24 September. The assessment sees a low but rising risk that Russia will carry out limited military attacks on a NATO country bordering Russia. It also expects Russia to escalate its hybrid war against the West in the coming months.
"Russia can do this even if the war in Ukraine continues and Russia is not ready for a regional war or a large-scale war against NATO," the assessment states. One example it gives is "isolated attacks with long-range weapons against infrastructure that plays a role in the support for Ukraine". Another could be a false flag attack using Ukrainian-made drones. Russia could also send small forces without national insignia into a NATO country bordering Russia.
FE judges that Russia would probably only attack if it believed this would not trigger war with a united NATO. The risk grows if Moscow concludes the US cannot or will not support its European allies.
"Although we consider it unlikely that Russia will attempt an actual invasion of a NATO country, we cannot rule it out," FE said. It sees no signs of one and estimates preparations would take at least six months.
FE calls the 14 September incident off Gedser, where a Russian frigate fired flares at a Danish military helicopter, the most serious that Danish units have faced.
FE has previously assessed that Russia is conducting hybrid warfare against NATO and the West, as reported by NDS in October. At the time, FE judged that Russia still sought to avoid actions that could trigger NATO's Article 5.
Chief of Defence General Michael W. Hyldgaard said Russia's threats against Denmark and its allies have gradually increased. He pointed to Denmark's large contribution in the Baltics, particularly Latvia. "Our soldiers in Forward Land Forces in Latvia are part of a multinational division with other NATO countries. We therefore do not stand alone against the threat from Russia in the Baltics," he said. "We are building up combat power at great speed."